Think about house prices in your area five or ten years ago. No matter where you live, they would have been much lower than today. In some areas of the country prices 10 years ago were half current prices (even after the large correction we have seen in the last 2 years). This is because the value of housing appreciates over time. This is what allows you to make real money with real estate. When you buy low and sell high you make money!
There is no way to predict how much a home will go up in value, just like with stocks and other investments. You can how ever analyze a market, and analyze the past and make a better decision about where to buy. Also, in the same way the stock market can "crash", real estate values can to. There are not safe bets in life.
First, you need to understand what makes a home go up in value. Stocks go up in value when a company makes profits, or shows the potential to make profits increasing the demand for that stock. Houses increase in value for two reasons, inflation and demand. Inflation is the gradual increase in costs over time, and demand is based on the location of the home and the desire to live there.
Supply and Demand are basic principals in economics. When there is a high demand and a limited supply prices will increase. When there is too much supply available for the demand prices reduce to entice more demand. Excess demand will increase prices, while excess supply will reduce prices, therefore they move inversely.
We can look at supply and demand in real estate on a small level and then expand the principles to larger areas. Let’s say there is a neighborhood with 100 homes. There are usually 5 buyers per year that want to move into this neighborhood and 5 people that wish to sell. The supply and demand are balanced so the little appreciation that is seen will be based on inflation.Â
Suddenly a new road goes in making this neighborhood very convenient to the downtown area where many people work. For this reason instead of 5 people wanting to buy here per year, 100 people want to! There are only 5 houses for sale per year and now there are 100 buyers competing for them. The supply is still at 5, but now the demand is substantially higher. With 100 people battling to own only 5 homes, prices will increase rapidly as they attempt to outbid each other to get the homes. High demand and low or static supply results in increased appreciation and prices.
As the prices begin to increase other people will start to sell to take advantage of the new higher prices. For some people, being close to downtown is not important so they will sell their homes in this neighborhood at the higher price and move to another neighborhood that is not in such demand. This will increase the supply as more people are willing to sell their homes at the new higher prices.
Now the supply will increase as more homes go up for sale, so in our example we will say there are now 50 homes for sale. As the supply increases to meet the demand the prices will start to level out. Finally the price will be at a point that outweighs the benefit of being close to down town. When this happens the buyers will move on to other areas reducing the demand. Prices will level at a point when the supply and demand meet and return to normal levels of appreciation. The reduction in demand, caused by potential buyers being discouraged by price, will ultimately cause prices to stop increasing.
This is the supply and demand cycle. The supply and demand cycle is much different for real estate than it is for other goods. If there was a product that suddenly came in demand the manufacturer could simply make more of it and meet the demand, or a competitor would begin to produce a the product to meet the demand. In our example above there were only 100 homes in the neighborhood in demand. No one can create new homes in this neighborhood so the only way to create more supply is for more people to sell. The only way to motivate more people to sell is to increase the price. The longer the existing owners refuse to sell in an area the faster prices will increase and the longer the increasing trend will last. The market will continue to increase prices until they reach a point that motivates the existing owners to sell, or the price outweighs the benefit of owning in that location.
This supply and demand imbalance can be applied on a larger scale to the areas that had high amounts of appreciation in 2005. Due to low interest rates and our aging population many people began buying homes in desirable areas such as Arizona, Nevada and Florida. As the demand increased, the supply remained the same – for a while. As prices increased some owners decided to sell their homes at the new higher prices, claim a profit and move to other states. The areas that experienced the growth had large amounts of vacant land. This allowed more supply to be created. When we were talking about a neighborhood with a fixed amount of homes for sale the supply was easy to track, but when looking at a larger scale area with the option to create new homes things get a little more complicated.
The development and construction industries can take around 18 months to add substantial amounts of new inventory to an area. When the demand for these areas suddenly increased the development and building communities started large scale attempts to add new supply to the market. For the first 18 months they had no effect on the supply because of the time it takes to develop and build a new home.Â
During this time the only way to meet the demand was to increase prices to motivate existing owners to leave. This 18 month period was an appreciation spike seeing rates as high as 30+%. It took a 30% price increase, in some areas, to motivate enough existing owners to sell. They had to be motivated to sell to meet the demand imbalance in the markets. Prices spiraled out of control.
The markets are efficient, although often slow. Eighteen months after this all began the construction and development industry finally showed up with the increased supply needed to meet the demand. Balance was restored to the market, and the appreciation spike stopped. The demand remained the same, but the supply was finally able to catch up. Some fear that prices will drop, but as long as the demand stays constant the previously reached prices are justified.Â